Queretaro
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.91Bookmakers 51%
Puebla
22%
Fair odds 4.52Bookmakers 24%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Queretaro | Draw | Puebla | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 25% | 22% |
| Elo model | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Best price on offer | 1.90 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Queretaro
Queretaro are rated 72 points above Puebla (1345 to 1273), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Queretaro
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Queretaro's chance of winning and takes the same from Puebla's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Queretaro
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.0. Queretaro score 0.8 a match against an average side (14th in Liga MX); Puebla concede 2.1 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Puebla
Queretaro LLLLW, lost 39 rating points; Puebla LLLDD, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Queretaro 51%, Puebla 24%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Queretaro won 4, drew 2 and lost 4 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
QueretaroPueblaQueretaro
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
17 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/12
09/21
09/27
10/11
10/21
10/26
10/31
Puebla
3/10 over 2.5
8 scored
16 conceded
08/30
09/12
09/16
09/19
09/27
10/10
10/17
10/22
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Queretaro | Draw | Puebla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Queretaro | 32%3.16 | 3%30.77 | 1%— |
| Level | 18%5.56 | 15%6.62 | 6%16.61 |
| Puebla | 3%29.85 | 6%16.23 | 16%6.31 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Queretaro wins4Puebla wins- W Puebla vs Queretaro 1-2
- W Queretaro vs Puebla 3-1
- W Queretaro vs Puebla 2-0
- L Puebla vs Queretaro 2-1
- W Puebla vs Queretaro 0-2
- D Queretaro vs Puebla 1-1
- L Puebla vs Queretaro 2-0
- D Queretaro vs Puebla 1-1
- L Queretaro vs Puebla 0-2
- L Puebla vs Queretaro 1-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Queretaro's side.