Millwall
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.19
QPR
28%
Fair odds 3.54
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Millwall | Draw | QPR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Millwall
Millwall are rated 33 points above QPR (1496 to 1464), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Millwall
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Millwall's chance of winning and takes the same from QPR's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Millwall
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.2. Millwall score 1.2 a match against an average side (10th in Championship); QPR concede 1.3 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours QPR
Millwall LWLDL, lost 21 rating points; QPR DLWLW, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Millwall
Millwall won 6, drew 2 and lost 2 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MillwallQPRMillwall
8/10 over 2.5
17 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
QPR
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Millwall | Draw | QPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 28%3.54 | 5%18.87 | 2%50.00 |
| Level | 16%6.43 | 15%6.60 | 11%8.83 |
| QPR | 2%42.74 | 5%21.60 | 15%6.48 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Millwall wins2QPR wins- W Millwall vs QPR 2-0
- W QPR vs Millwall 1-2
- W Millwall vs QPR 2-1
- D QPR vs Millwall 1-1
- L QPR vs Millwall 2-0
- W Millwall vs QPR 2-0
- W QPR vs Millwall 1-2
- L Millwall vs QPR 0-2
- W Millwall vs QPR 2-0
- D QPR vs Millwall 1-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Millwall's side.