Norwich
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 1.98
QPR
25%
Fair odds 3.95
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Norwich | Draw | QPR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 24% | 25% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Norwich
Norwich are rated 31 points above QPR (1495 to 1464), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Norwich
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Norwich's chance of winning and takes the same from QPR's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Norwich
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.2. Norwich score 1.3 a match against an average side (5th in Championship); QPR concede 1.3 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Norwich WWWLL, gained 16 rating points; QPR DLWLW, gained 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Norwich
Norwich won 3, drew 4 and lost 1 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NorwichQPRNorwich
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
QPR
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Norwich | Draw | QPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich | 31%3.20 | 5%20.66 | 2%58.14 |
| Level | 17%6.00 | 13%7.45 | 9%10.74 |
| QPR | 3%33.11 | 5%19.88 | 15%6.80 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Norwich wins1QPR wins- W QPR vs Norwich 1-2
- W Norwich vs QPR 3-1
- D Norwich vs QPR 1-1
- L QPR vs Norwich 3-0
- D QPR vs Norwich 2-2
- W Norwich vs QPR 1-0
- D QPR vs Norwich 1-1
- D Norwich vs QPR 0-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Norwich's side.