Shanghai Shenhua
Model pick
63%
Fair odds 1.59Bookmakers 65%
Qingdao West Coast
17%
Fair odds 6.04Bookmakers 16%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Shanghai Shenhua | Draw | Qingdao West Coast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 63% | 20% | 17% |
| Elo model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Best price on offer | 1.43 | 5.00 | 6.25 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua are rated 100 points above Qingdao West Coast (1470 to 1371), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Shanghai Shenhua
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Shanghai Shenhua's chance of winning and takes the same from Qingdao West Coast's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Shanghai Shenhua
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.1. Shanghai Shenhua score 1.4 a match against an average side (3rd in Chinese Super League); Qingdao West Coast concede 1.6 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua LWWWL, gained 10 rating points; Qingdao West Coast DLLDD, lost 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Shanghai Shenhua 65%, Qingdao West Coast 16%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua won 4, drew 1 and lost 0 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Shanghai ShenhuaQingdao West CoastShanghai Shenhua
9/10 over 2.5
27 scored
19 conceded
08/02
08/08
08/15
08/18
08/22
08/28
09/06
10/10
10/18
10/24
Qingdao West Coast
2/10 over 2.5
9 scored
9 conceded
07/25
08/02
08/09
08/14
08/22
08/29
09/05
10/11
10/18
10/24
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Shanghai Shenhua | Draw | Qingdao West Coast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Shenhua | 33%3.06 | 2%42.74 | 1%— |
| Level | 24%4.15 | 11%9.41 | 4%22.88 |
| Qingdao West Coast | 7%15.11 | 7%14.90 | 12%8.32 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Shanghai Shenhua wins0Qingdao West Coast wins- D Qingdao West Coast vs Shanghai Shenhua 2-2
- W Qingdao West Coast vs Shanghai Shenhua 1-2
- W Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao West Coast 4-0
- W Qingdao West Coast vs Shanghai Shenhua 0-1
- W Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao West Coast 2-0
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Shanghai Shenhua's side.