Stenhousemuir
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.03
Queens Park
23%
Fair odds 4.26
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Stenhousemuir | Draw | Queens Park | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 27% | 23% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir are rated 41 points above Queens Park (1284 to 1243), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Stenhousemuir
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Stenhousemuir's chance of winning and takes the same from Queens Park's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Stenhousemuir
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.0. Stenhousemuir score 0.7 a match against an average side (8th in Scottish Championship); Queens Park concede 2.1 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Queens Park
Stenhousemuir LLLDL, lost 36 rating points; Queens Park LLLWL, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
StenhousemuirQueens ParkStenhousemuir
3/10 over 2.5
8 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/04
09/15
09/19
09/25
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/30
Queens Park
4/10 over 2.5
7 scored
16 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/18
09/25
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Stenhousemuir | Draw | Queens Park |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stenhousemuir | 28%3.54 | 4%26.60 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.34 | 17%5.90 | 8%12.27 |
| Queens Park | 3%34.97 | 6%18.08 | 15%6.72 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Stenhousemuir wins0Queens Park wins- W Queens Park vs Stenhousemuir 0-2
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Stenhousemuir's side.