Genk
Model pick
66%
Fair odds 1.52
RAAL La Louviere
14%
Fair odds 6.92
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Genk | Draw | RAAL La Louviere | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Elo model | 63% | 24% | 14% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Genk
Genk are rated 123 points above RAAL La Louviere (1549 to 1426), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Genk
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Genk's chance of winning and takes the same from RAAL La Louviere's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Genk
Expected goals 2.3 to 1.0. Genk score 1.5 a match against an average side (3rd in Belgian Pro League); RAAL La Louviere concede 1.6 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Genk LWWLD, lost 7 rating points; RAAL La Louviere LWLLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
GenkRAAL La LouviereGenk
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
14 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/25
10/31
RAAL La Louviere
8/10 over 2.5
13 scored
23 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/21
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Genk | Draw | RAAL La Louviere |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genk | 42%2.38 | 4%26.74 | 1%98.04 |
| Level | 21%4.85 | 11%9.19 | 6%17.83 |
| RAAL La Louviere | 4%27.03 | 4%23.70 | 8%12.24 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Genk wins0RAAL La Louviere wins- D RAAL La Louviere vs Genk 5-5
- D Genk vs RAAL La Louviere 1-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Genk's side.