Union Berlin
27%
Fair odds 3.64
RB Leipzig
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.06
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Union Berlin | Draw | RB Leipzig | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 27% | 24% | 48% |
| Elo model | 27% | 27% | 45% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig are rated 127 points above Union Berlin (1569 to 1442), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Union Berlin
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Union Berlin's chance of winning and takes the same from RB Leipzig's.
-
Attack against defence Favours RB Leipzig
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.8. Union Berlin score 1.1 a match against an average side (16th in Bundesliga); RB Leipzig concede 1.3 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Union Berlin DDDWL, gained 7 rating points; RB Leipzig LWWLL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Union Berlin
Union Berlin won 5, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Union BerlinRB LeipzigUnion Berlin
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
20 conceded
05/10
05/16
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/18
10/10
10/17
10/24
11/01
RB Leipzig
7/10 over 2.5
23 scored
19 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Union Berlin | Draw | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | 15%6.50 | 5%20.28 | 3%33.22 |
| Level | 10%9.61 | 13%7.66 | 16%6.19 |
| RB Leipzig | 2%47.17 | 5%19.38 | 30%3.36 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Union Berlin wins3RB Leipzig wins- L RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin 3-1
- W Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig 3-1
- D Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig 0-0
- D RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin 0-0
- L RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin 2-0
- L Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig 0-3
- W RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin 1-2
- W Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig 2-1
- W RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin 1-2
- W Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig 2-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Union Berlin's side.