Barracas Central
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.12Bookmakers 39%
Racing Club
24%
Fair odds 4.13Bookmakers 31%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Barracas Central: 47% here, 39% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Barracas Central | Draw | Racing Club | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 39% | 31% | 31% |
| Best price on offer | 2.50 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Barracas Central and Racing Club are rated almost level (1365 and 1358).
-
Home advantage Favours Barracas Central
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Barracas Central's chance of winning and takes the same from Racing Club's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Barracas Central
Expected goals 1.4 to 0.9. Barracas Central score 0.7 a match against an average side (16th in Liga Profesional); Racing Club concede 1.7 (22nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Barracas Central
Barracas Central DWDWW, gained 26 rating points; Racing Club WLDLW, lost 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Racing Club
Bookmakers rate Racing Club higher than the model does: Barracas Central 39% against the model's 47%, Racing Club 31% against 24%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Barracas Central won 1, drew 3 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Barracas CentralRacing ClubBarracas Central
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
10 conceded
08/23
09/01
09/07
09/14
09/21
10/03
10/10
10/19
10/26
11/01
Racing Club
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/24
08/31
09/07
09/14
09/19
10/05
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Barracas Central | Draw | Racing Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barracas Central | 32%3.16 | 3%29.85 | 1%— |
| Level | 14%7.06 | 19%5.29 | 6%16.56 |
| Racing Club | 2%53.48 | 5%18.55 | 18%5.53 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Barracas Central wins2Racing Club wins- D Racing Club vs Barracas Central 1-1
- W Racing Club vs Barracas Central 0-1
- L Barracas Central vs Racing Club 1-3
- L Barracas Central vs Racing Club 0-2
- D Racing Club vs Barracas Central 1-1
- D Barracas Central vs Racing Club 0-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Barracas Central's side.