Malaga
Model pick
58%
Fair odds 1.73
Racing Club
19%
Fair odds 5.15
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Malaga | Draw | Racing Club | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
Team news
- Julen Lobete Out
- Aarón Ochoa Out
- Diego Murillo Out
- Juan Cruz Doubtful
- Pablo Martínez Doubtful
- Ángel Recio Doubtful
Joaquín Muñoz is back in training and expected in the squad; Carlos Puga trained apart as a precaution but is expected to be fit. Adrián Niño expected to lead the attack.
- Álvaro Mantilla Out
- Andrés Martín Out
- Maguette Gueye Doubtful
- Manu Hernando Doubtful
Jorge Salinas is back from suspension and available; Racing have no suspended players for this match.
Allowing for this news: Malaga 59%, draw 23%, Racing Club 18% (xG 1.96 – 1.01). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: futbolfantasy.com, infobae.com, sportsmole.co.uk, jornadaperfecta.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Malaga
Malaga are rated 37 points above Racing Club (1394 to 1358), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Malaga
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Malaga's chance of winning and takes the same from Racing Club's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Malaga
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.1. Malaga score 1.0 a match against an average side (19th in La Liga); Racing Club concede 1.7 (22nd best defence in Liga Profesional).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Malaga LDLDL, lost 16 rating points; Racing Club WLDLW, lost 8 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
MalagaRacing ClubMalaga
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
19 conceded
08/24
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/09
10/18
10/23
10/31
Racing Club
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/24
08/31
09/07
09/14
09/19
10/05
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Malaga | Draw | Racing Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 22%4.53 | 1%82.64 | 0%— |
| Level | 27%3.75 | 11%9.15 | 3%32.36 |
| Racing Club | 10%10.41 | 10%10.31 | 17%6.05 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.