Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Korona Kielce | Draw | Radomiak Radom | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 21% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Best price on offer | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.55 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce are rated 46 points above Radomiak Radom (1359 to 1312), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Korona Kielce
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Korona Kielce's chance of winning and takes the same from Radomiak Radom's.
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Attack against defence Favours Korona Kielce
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Korona Kielce score 0.8 a match against an average side (19th in Ekstraklasa); Radomiak Radom concede 2.4 (21st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Korona Kielce LWLLW, lost 9 rating points; Radomiak Radom WLLLL, lost 14 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Korona Kielce 55%, Radomiak Radom 21%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce won 5, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Korona KielceRadomiak Radom
10/18
09/20
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 3-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Korona Kielce | Draw | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Korona Kielce | 31%3.19 | 3%29.67 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.16 | 13%7.49 | 6%15.62 |
| Radomiak Radom | 4%24.10 | 6%16.03 | 15%6.68 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
- W Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce 0-2
- W Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom 3-0
- L Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom 1-3
- L Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce 4-0
- W Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom 4-0
- D Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce 1-1
- W Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom 2-1
- W Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce 0-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Korona Kielce's side.