Ayr
31%
Fair odds 3.23
Raith Rvs
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.52
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Ayr | Draw | Raith Rvs | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Raith Rvs
Raith Rvs are rated 62 points above Ayr (1373 to 1312), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Ayr
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Ayr's chance of winning and takes the same from Raith Rvs's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Raith Rvs
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.2. Ayr score 0.7 a match against an average side (6th in Scottish Championship); Raith Rvs concede 1.4 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Ayr WLDWL, barely moved; Raith Rvs WLDWW, gained 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Raith Rvs
Ayr won 8, drew 2 and lost 11 of the last 21 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AyrRaith RvsAyr
3/10 over 2.5
10 scored
13 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/18
09/25
10/03
10/10
10/16
10/31
Raith Rvs
3/10 over 2.5
15 scored
7 conceded
08/28
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/25
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Ayr | Draw | Raith Rvs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr | 20%4.90 | 6%16.81 | 2%40.49 |
| Level | 10%9.94 | 19%5.40 | 16%6.21 |
| Raith Rvs | 1%98.04 | 4%26.53 | 22%4.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
8Ayr wins11Raith Rvs wins- L Raith Rvs vs Ayr 2-0
- L Raith Rvs vs Ayr 3-0
- W Ayr vs Raith Rvs 2-1
- W Raith Rvs vs Ayr 0-2
- L Ayr vs Raith Rvs 0-1
- L Raith Rvs vs Ayr 1-0
- W Ayr vs Raith Rvs 3-0
- L Raith Rvs vs Ayr 2-0
- W Ayr vs Raith Rvs 2-0
- L Raith Rvs vs Ayr 2-1
21 meetings in the data. Results shown from Ayr's side.