The model and the bookmakers disagree. Legia: 63% here, 49% with bookmakers; Rakow: 15% here, 26% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Legia | Draw | Rakow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Best price on offer | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.70 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Legia
Legia are rated 68 points above Rakow (1445 to 1377), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Legia
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Legia's chance of winning and takes the same from Rakow's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Legia
Expected goals 2.0 to 0.9. Legia score 1.1 a match against an average side (2nd in Ekstraklasa); Rakow concede 1.9 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Legia
Legia DLDWW, gained 12 rating points; Rakow WLWLL, lost 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Rakow
Bookmakers rate Rakow higher than the model does: Legia 49% against the model's 63%, Rakow 26% against 15%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Rakow
Legia won 1, drew 4 and lost 5 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LegiaRakow
09/20
10/25
08/30
09/06
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Legia | Draw | Rakow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legia | 34%2.98 | 2%56.82 | 0%— |
| Level | 24%4.13 | 12%8.49 | 3%31.85 |
| Rakow | 6%16.34 | 7%14.04 | 12%8.25 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
- D Legia vs Rakow 1-1
- D Rakow vs Legia 1-1
- L Rakow vs Legia 3-2
- L Legia vs Rakow 0-1
- D Rakow vs Legia 1-1
- L Legia vs Rakow 1-2
- W Legia vs Rakow 3-1
- L Rakow vs Legia 4-0
- D Rakow vs Legia 1-1
- L Legia vs Rakow 2-3
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Legia's side.