Viborg
Model pick
70%
Fair odds 1.42
Randers FC
11%
Fair odds 8.93
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Viborg | Draw | Randers FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 70% | 18% | 11% |
| Elo model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Viborg
Viborg are rated 106 points above Randers FC (1404 to 1298), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Viborg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Viborg's chance of winning and takes the same from Randers FC's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Viborg
Expected goals 2.3 to 0.8. Viborg score 1.1 a match against an average side (3rd in Danish Superliga); Randers FC concede 2.2 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Viborg
Viborg WLLWW, gained 16 rating points; Randers FC LLDLL, lost 36 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Viborg won 6, drew 2 and lost 7 of the last 15 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ViborgRanders FCViborg
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
11 conceded
08/14
08/23
08/28
09/04
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/19
10/25
11/01
Randers FC
7/10 over 2.5
10 scored
19 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/23
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Viborg | Draw | Randers FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Viborg | 34%2.90 | 1%— | 0%— |
| Level | 28%3.57 | 9%10.59 | 2%58.82 |
| Randers FC | 8%11.98 | 7%13.70 | 10%10.31 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Viborg wins7Randers FC wins- W Randers FC vs Viborg 0-2
- W Viborg vs Randers FC 3-2
- L Randers FC vs Viborg 2-1
- L Viborg vs Randers FC 1-2
- L Randers FC vs Viborg 3-1
- L Randers FC vs Viborg 1-0
- D Viborg vs Randers FC 0-0
- W Viborg vs Randers FC 3-0
- L Randers FC vs Viborg 1-0
- W Randers FC vs Viborg 0-2
15 meetings in the data. Results shown from Viborg's side.