Motherwell
25%
Fair odds 3.93
Rangers
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.98
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Motherwell | Draw | Rangers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Elo model | 27% | 27% | 45% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Rangers
Rangers are rated 128 points above Motherwell (1605 to 1477), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Motherwell
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Motherwell's chance of winning and takes the same from Rangers's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Rangers
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.8. Motherwell score 1.1 a match against an average side (5th in Scottish Premiership); Rangers concede 1.1 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Rangers
Motherwell WDLLL, lost 21 rating points; Rangers DWDWW, gained 19 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Rangers
Motherwell won 3, drew 5 and lost 10 of the last 18 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MotherwellRangersMotherwell
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
19 conceded
08/30
09/02
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/28
10/31
Rangers
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
8 conceded
08/09
08/30
09/02
09/05
09/09
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-3
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Motherwell | Draw | Rangers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 16%6.18 | 6%16.95 | 4%25.91 |
| Level | 8%11.98 | 13%7.66 | 18%5.57 |
| Rangers | 1%73.53 | 4%24.33 | 29%3.42 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Motherwell wins10Rangers wins- L Rangers vs Motherwell 1-0
- W Rangers vs Motherwell 2-3
- D Motherwell vs Rangers 1-1
- L Rangers vs Motherwell 1-0
- D Motherwell vs Rangers 1-1
- W Rangers vs Motherwell 1-2
- D Motherwell vs Rangers 2-2
- L Rangers vs Motherwell 2-1
- W Rangers vs Motherwell 1-2
- L Motherwell vs Rangers 0-2
18 meetings in the data. Results shown from Motherwell's side.