St Mirren
19%
Fair odds 5.32Bookmakers 14%
Rangers
Model pick
58%
Fair odds 1.71Bookmakers 66%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| St Mirren | Draw | Rangers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 19% | 23% | 58% |
| Elo model | 19% | 26% | 56% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 14% | 20% | 66% |
| Best price on offer | 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.44 |
Team news
- Jonah Ayunga Out
- Keanu Baccus Out
- Malik Dijksteel Out
- Nikolas Agrafiotis Out
- Ismael Kabia Out
Reports say Chris Mochrie and Jake Young could come in as McLeish considers changes after the Motherwell defeat; Liam Donnelly is also a long-term absentee in older reports.
- Lawrence Shankland Out
- Youssef Chermiti Out
- Daisuke Yokota Out
- Cameron Devlin Out
- Ross McCrorie Out
- Jose Cifuentes Out
- John Souttar Out
Emmanuel Fernandez (knock) and Badredine Bouanani (illness) are expected to be available per the club's latest pre-match comments; Ben Godfrey and Dan Neil could come into the starting eleven.
Allowing for this news: St Mirren 19%, draw 23%, Rangers 58% (xG 1.00 – 1.91). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: rangersnews.uk, sportsmole.co.uk, dave.sport, livescore.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Rangers
Rangers are rated 200 points above St Mirren (1605 to 1405), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours St Mirren
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to St Mirren's chance of winning and takes the same from Rangers's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Rangers
Expected goals 1.0 to 1.9. St Mirren score 0.9 a match against an average side (12th in Scottish Premiership); Rangers concede 1.1 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Rangers
St Mirren LDWLL, lost 12 rating points; Rangers DWDWW, gained 19 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Rangers
Bookmakers rate Rangers higher than the model does: St Mirren 14% against the model's 19%, Rangers 66% against 58%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Rangers
St Mirren won 2, drew 3 and lost 14 of the last 19 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
St MirrenRangersSt Mirren
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
20 conceded
08/30
09/02
09/05
09/09
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
10/31
Rangers
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
8 conceded
08/09
08/30
09/02
09/05
09/09
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 61%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 0-0
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | St Mirren | Draw | Rangers |
|---|---|---|---|
| St Mirren | 12%8.36 | 6%18.08 | 4%24.39 |
| Level | 6%15.72 | 13%7.72 | 21%4.78 |
| Rangers | 1%— | 3%28.82 | 34%2.96 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2St Mirren wins14Rangers wins- L Rangers vs St Mirren 1-0
- L St Mirren vs Rangers 0-1
- L Rangers vs St Mirren 2-1
- D St Mirren vs Rangers 1-1
- D St Mirren vs Rangers 2-2
- W Rangers vs St Mirren 0-2
- W St Mirren vs Rangers 2-1
- L Rangers vs St Mirren 2-1
- L St Mirren vs Rangers 1-2
- L St Mirren vs Rangers 0-1
19 meetings in the data. Results shown from St Mirren's side.