Peterboro
33%
Fair odds 2.99
Reading
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.43
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Peterboro | Draw | Reading | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 25% | 41% |
| Elo model | 30% | 28% | 43% |
Team news
- Carl Johnston Out
- Owura Edwards Out
Sam Hughes is back from a long layoff and is expected to start; Matthew Garbett and Brandon Khela are tipped to start after a free week of training; Garbett's earlier hamstring doubt is from an outdated listing and not counted.
- George Earthey Out
- Benn Ward Out
- Paddy Lane Out
Rotation expected
Jack Marriott is back from an ankle injury but is expected to be rested after only just returning; Charlie Savage is eligible as a cup option, and Reading are sixth in League One after losing 2-0 at Oxford United.
Allowing for this news: Peterboro 34%, draw 26%, Reading 40% (xG 1.39 – 1.53). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, peterboroughtoday.co.uk, peterboroughtoday.co.uk, peterboroughtoday.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Reading
Reading are rated 110 points above Peterboro (1381 to 1271), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Peterboro
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Peterboro's chance of winning and takes the same from Reading's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Reading
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.6. Peterboro score 0.8 a match against an average side (16th in League One); Reading concede 1.6 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Peterboro LDLDW, barely moved; Reading LDWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Peterboro
Reading will have had 3 days' rest, Peterboro 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Peterboro won 2, drew 3 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PeterboroReadingPeterboro
4/10 over 2.5
9 scored
16 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Reading
4/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Peterboro | Draw | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peterboro | 19%5.15 | 5%18.55 | 3%34.13 |
| Level | 12%8.13 | 14%7.11 | 15%6.53 |
| Reading | 2%45.25 | 5%20.24 | 23%4.27 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Peterboro wins3Reading wins- D Peterboro vs Reading 1-1
- W Reading vs Peterboro 1-2
- L Reading vs Peterboro 3-1
- L Peterboro vs Reading 1-2
- D Peterboro vs Reading 2-2
- W Reading vs Peterboro 0-1
- D Peterboro vs Reading 0-0
- L Reading vs Peterboro 3-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Peterboro's side.