Stockport
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 1.98
Reading
25%
Fair odds 4.06
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Stockport | Draw | Reading | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Stockport
Stockport are rated 41 points above Reading (1422 to 1381), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Stockport
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Stockport's chance of winning and takes the same from Reading's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Stockport
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.1. Stockport score 1.0 a match against an average side (5th in League One); Reading concede 1.6 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Stockport WLDWW, gained 6 rating points; Reading LDWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Stockport won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
StockportReadingStockport
4/10 over 2.5
17 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Reading
4/10 over 2.5
14 scored
10 conceded
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Stockport | Draw | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stockport | 29%3.45 | 4%22.99 | 1%68.03 |
| Level | 19%5.36 | 14%7.03 | 9%10.79 |
| Reading | 3%29.76 | 5%18.83 | 14%6.95 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Stockport wins1Reading wins- L Reading vs Stockport 1-0
- D Stockport vs Reading 1-1
- W Reading vs Stockport 1-3
- W Stockport vs Reading 4-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Stockport's side.