Valencia
15%
Fair odds 6.48Bookmakers 10%
Real Madrid
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.56Bookmakers 74%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Real Madrid: 64% here, 74% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Valencia | Draw | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 15% | 21% | 64% |
| Elo model | 14% | 24% | 62% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 10% | 15% | 74% |
| Best price on offer | 10.50 | 6.50 | 1.30 |
Team news
- Sergi Canós Out
- Diego López Out
- David Otorbi Out
- Kayne van Oevelen Out
- José Copete Doubtful
- Dimitri Foulquier Out
Umar Sadiq is back from a hamstring injury and expected to start per several previews, though one report lists him as out; Harvey Elliott is available after suspension.
- Vinícius Júnior Out
- Rodrygo Out
- Raúl Asencio Out
- Ferland Mendy Out
- Federico Valverde Doubtful
- Thibaut Courtois Doubtful
Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappé are expected to start; Trent Alexander-Arnold is expected to start in place of Valverde per one report; Arda Güler, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Dean Huijsen and Ibrahima Konaté are reported as confirmed starters; Éder Militão is out long term (not in the current match-day lists).
Allowing for this news: Valencia 18%, draw 22%, Real Madrid 60% (xG 0.99 – 2.00). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: khelnow.com, sportsmole.co.uk, camel2.live, 101greatgoals.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Real Madrid
Real Madrid are rated 246 points above Valencia (1716 to 1470), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Valencia
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Valencia's chance of winning and takes the same from Real Madrid's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Real Madrid
Expected goals 1.0 to 2.1. Valencia score 1.0 a match against an average side (18th in La Liga); Real Madrid concede 0.9 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Real Madrid
Valencia WLDDL, lost 7 rating points; Real Madrid WWWWW, gained 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Valencia
Real Madrid will have had 3 days' rest, Valencia 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Real Madrid
Bookmakers rate Real Madrid higher than the model does: Valencia 10% against the model's 15%, Real Madrid 74% against 64%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Real Madrid
Valencia won 2, drew 1 and lost 7 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ValenciaReal MadridValencia
5/10 over 2.5
8 scored
17 conceded
08/25
08/30
09/06
09/11
09/15
09/20
10/17
10/24
11/01
Real Madrid
9/10 over 2.5
29 scored
13 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/18
10/21
10/25
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 66%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-3
- 1-3
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Valencia | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 9%10.98 | 5%20.66 | 4%22.73 |
| Level | 6%17.24 | 12%8.65 | 23%4.37 |
| Real Madrid | 1%— | 3%29.85 | 37%2.69 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Valencia wins7Real Madrid wins- L Valencia vs Real Madrid 0-2
- L Real Madrid vs Valencia 4-0
- W Real Madrid vs Valencia 1-2
- L Valencia vs Real Madrid 1-2
- D Valencia vs Real Madrid 2-2
- L Real Madrid vs Valencia 5-1
- W Valencia vs Real Madrid 1-0
- L Real Madrid vs Valencia 2-0
- L Real Madrid vs Valencia 4-1
- L Valencia vs Real Madrid 1-2
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Valencia's side.