Dijon
Model pick
40%
Fair odds 2.49Bookmakers 35%
Red Star
33%
Fair odds 3.02Bookmakers 37%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Dijon | Draw | Red Star | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 35% | 27% | 37% |
| Best price on offer | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Red Star
Red Star are rated 36 points above Dijon (1388 to 1352), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Dijon
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Dijon's chance of winning and takes the same from Red Star's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Dijon
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.3. Dijon score 1.0 a match against an average side (11th in Ligue 2); Red Star concede 1.4 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Dijon
Dijon WLLWW, gained 19 rating points; Red Star WLLDL, lost 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Dijon
Red Star will have had 1 days' rest, Dijon 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Red Star
Bookmakers rate Red Star higher than the model does: Dijon 35% against the model's 40%, Red Star 37% against 33%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
DijonRed StarDijon
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
18 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/31
09/04
09/11
09/18
10/12
10/16
10/24
10/30
Red Star
8/10 over 2.5
17 scored
17 conceded
09/04
09/14
09/19
10/10
10/15
10/17
10/22
10/26
11/02
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 56%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Dijon | Draw | Red Star |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon | 24%4.22 | 5%19.46 | 2%47.62 |
| Level | 15%6.84 | 16%6.44 | 13%7.90 |
| Red Star | 2%42.74 | 5%19.96 | 19%5.29 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.