Grenoble
24%
Fair odds 4.13Bookmakers 24%
Reims
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.00Bookmakers 49%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Grenoble | Draw | Reims | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Elo model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Best price on offer | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.93 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Reims
Reims are rated 153 points above Grenoble (1457 to 1304), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Grenoble
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Grenoble's chance of winning and takes the same from Reims's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Reims
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.6. Grenoble score 0.8 a match against an average side (19th in Ligue 2); Reims concede 1.4 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Reims
Grenoble LLLLD, lost 42 rating points; Reims WDWDD, gained 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Grenoble
Reims will have had 4 days' rest, Grenoble 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Grenoble 24%, Reims 49%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GrenobleReimsGrenoble
5/10 over 2.5
8 scored
16 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/28
09/04
09/11
09/18
10/09
10/16
10/23
10/30
Reims
6/10 over 2.5
22 scored
12 conceded
08/14
08/24
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/18
10/10
10/16
10/26
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 49%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Grenoble | Draw | Reims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grenoble | 15%6.64 | 6%17.67 | 3%30.03 |
| Level | 9%11.72 | 15%6.56 | 19%5.27 |
| Reims | 1%88.50 | 4%25.45 | 28%3.55 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Grenoble wins0Reims wins- D Grenoble vs Reims 0-0
- W Reims vs Grenoble 2-4
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Grenoble's side.