Athletico-PR
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.81
Remo
20%
Fair odds 4.95
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Athletico-PR | Draw | Remo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 55% | 24% | 20% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Athletico-PR
Athletico-PR are rated 78 points above Remo (1387 to 1309), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Athletico-PR
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Athletico-PR's chance of winning and takes the same from Remo's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Athletico-PR
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.0. Athletico-PR score 0.9 a match against an average side (7th in Brasileirão); Remo concede 1.9 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Remo
Athletico-PR LDLWD, lost 14 rating points; Remo WLDDD, gained 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Athletico-PRRemoAthletico-PR
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
20 conceded
08/25
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/09
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/30
Remo
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
14 conceded
08/22
09/01
09/06
09/15
09/19
10/07
10/10
10/18
10/23
10/29
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Athletico-PR | Draw | Remo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico-PR | 32%3.11 | 3%35.09 | 1%— |
| Level | 20%5.07 | 14%7.08 | 5%19.05 |
| Remo | 4%24.63 | 6%15.43 | 15%6.75 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Athletico-PR wins0Remo wins- W Remo vs Athletico-PR 1-2
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Athletico-PR's side.