Lorient
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.64
Rennes
36%
Fair odds 2.77
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Lorient | Draw | Rennes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Rennes
Rennes are rated 62 points above Lorient (1556 to 1493), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Lorient
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Lorient's chance of winning and takes the same from Rennes's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.4. Lorient score 1.1 a match against an average side (14th in Ligue 1); Rennes concede 1.3 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Lorient LDWWL, lost 9 rating points; Rennes DLWDL, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Lorient
Lorient won 6, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
LorientRennesLorient
3/10 over 2.5
7 scored
10 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/02
Rennes
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
17 conceded
09/11
09/16
09/19
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Lorient | Draw | Rennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 22%4.52 | 5%20.00 | 2%45.87 |
| Level | 14%7.26 | 15%6.84 | 13%7.86 |
| Rennes | 3%39.68 | 5%18.62 | 22%4.61 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Lorient wins2Rennes wins- W Rennes vs Lorient 0-2
- W Lorient vs Rennes 4-0
- W Rennes vs Lorient 1-2
- W Lorient vs Rennes 2-1
- W Lorient vs Rennes 2-1
- W Rennes vs Lorient 0-1
- L Rennes vs Lorient 5-0
- L Lorient vs Rennes 0-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Lorient's side.