Nijmegen
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.30
Rennes
33%
Fair odds 3.05
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nijmegen | Draw | Rennes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 24% | 33% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Rennes
Rennes are rated 35 points above Nijmegen (1556 to 1521), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nijmegen
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Nijmegen's chance of winning and takes the same from Rennes's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Nijmegen
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.6. Nijmegen score 1.5 a match against an average side (6th in Eredivisie); Rennes concede 1.3 (11th best defence in Ligue 1).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Nijmegen
Nijmegen WLDWD, gained 8 rating points; Rennes DLWDL, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
NijmegenRennesNijmegen
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Rennes
7/10 over 2.5
17 scored
17 conceded
09/11
09/16
09/19
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/30
11/04
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nijmegen | Draw | Rennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nijmegen | 28%3.58 | 6%17.33 | 3%35.21 |
| Level | 13%7.47 | 12%8.21 | 12%8.48 |
| Rennes | 3%37.31 | 5%20.70 | 19%5.38 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.