Wolfsberger AC
28%
Fair odds 3.56
Ried
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.18
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Wolfsberger AC | Draw | Ried | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Elo model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Ried
Ried are rated 38 points above Wolfsberger AC (1334 to 1296), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Wolfsberger AC
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Wolfsberger AC's chance of winning and takes the same from Ried's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Ried
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.6. Wolfsberger AC score 0.6 a match against an average side (13th in Austrian Bundesliga); Ried concede 1.9 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Ried
Wolfsberger AC DLLLL, lost 41 rating points; Ried DDWWW, gained 32 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Wolfsberger AC won 4, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Wolfsberger ACRiedWolfsberger AC
5/10 over 2.5
5 scored
20 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/29
09/01
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/24
11/01
Ried
7/10 over 2.5
18 scored
17 conceded
08/09
08/14
08/21
08/30
09/11
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Wolfsberger AC | Draw | Ried |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfsberger AC | 22%4.51 | 8%11.93 | 5%20.08 |
| Level | 6%17.15 | 14%6.99 | 19%5.27 |
| Ried | 0%— | 2%41.49 | 22%4.46 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Wolfsberger AC wins4Ried wins- L Ried vs Wolfsberger AC 4-1
- W Ried vs Wolfsberger AC 0-1
- D Wolfsberger AC vs Ried 0-0
- L Ried vs Wolfsberger AC 1-0
- L Wolfsberger AC vs Ried 1-2
- W Ried vs Wolfsberger AC 1-2
- W Wolfsberger AC vs Ried 1-0
- D Ried vs Wolfsberger AC 0-0
- L Wolfsberger AC vs Ried 1-2
- W Wolfsberger AC vs Ried 2-1
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Wolfsberger AC's side.