Kauno Zalgiris
36%
Fair odds 2.79
Riga FC
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.62
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kauno Zalgiris | Draw | Riga FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Riga FC
Riga FC are rated 24 points above Kauno Zalgiris (1352 to 1328), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kauno Zalgiris
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kauno Zalgiris's chance of winning and takes the same from Riga FC's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.5. Kauno Zalgiris score 0.8 a match against an average side; Riga FC concede 1.7.
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Kauno Zalgiris LLL, barely moved; Riga FC DDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Kauno ZalgirisRiga FCKauno Zalgiris
3/3 over 2.5
1 scored
11 conceded
10/15
10/22
11/05
Riga FC
0/3 over 2.5
3 scored
3 conceded
10/15
10/22
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kauno Zalgiris | Draw | Riga FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kauno Zalgiris | 25%3.97 | 7%14.47 | 3%29.07 |
| Level | 10%10.19 | 14%6.95 | 15%6.69 |
| Riga FC | 1%77.52 | 4%26.74 | 20%4.92 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.