Amedspor
Model pick
57%
Fair odds 1.77
Rizespor
21%
Fair odds 4.76
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Amedspor | Draw | Rizespor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Amedspor
Amedspor are rated 68 points above Rizespor (1552 to 1483), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Amedspor
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Amedspor's chance of winning and takes the same from Rizespor's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Amedspor
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.2. Amedspor score 1.5 a match against an average side (5th in Süper Lig); Rizespor concede 1.3 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Amedspor
Amedspor WWWDW, gained 25 rating points; Rizespor DLLLD, lost 17 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
AmedsporRizesporAmedspor
8/10 over 2.5
25 scored
11 conceded
08/16
08/24
08/31
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/17
10/24
11/01
Rizespor
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
15 conceded
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/07
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/16
10/26
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Amedspor | Draw | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amedspor | 31%3.26 | 4%28.25 | 1%89.29 |
| Level | 22%4.64 | 12%8.24 | 7%13.85 |
| Rizespor | 5%20.53 | 6%17.06 | 13%7.66 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.