Fleetwood Town
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.56
Rochdale
14%
Fair odds 6.96
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Fleetwood Town | Draw | Rochdale | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 64% | 21% | 14% |
| Elo model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Team news
- Ched Evans Doubtful
- Will Johnson Out
- Kane Thompson-Sommers Out
Club says only two players remain injured; Danny Andrew and Andy Cannon are working through returns, so not listed. Positions for Johnson and Thompson-Sommers were not stated in the sources and are unverified.
No absences reported
No recent injury or suspension reports for Rochdale found; treat as unknown.
Allowing for this news: Fleetwood Town 63%, draw 22%, Rochdale 15% (xG 1.99 – 0.85). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: fleetwoodtownfc.com, fleetwoodtownfc.com, sportsmole.co.uk, rochdaleafc.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town are rated 48 points above Rochdale (1195 to 1147), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Fleetwood Town
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Fleetwood Town's chance of winning and takes the same from Rochdale's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Fleetwood Town
Expected goals 2.0 to 0.8. Fleetwood Town score 0.7 a match against an average side (8th in League Two); Rochdale concede 2.8 (24th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town WLLWD, barely moved; Rochdale LLDLD, lost 32 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Fleetwood TownRochdaleFleetwood Town
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Rochdale
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
20 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Fleetwood Town | Draw | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town | 40%2.52 | 4%27.62 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.58 | 13%7.89 | 6%17.01 |
| Rochdale | 3%30.12 | 4%23.92 | 8%12.50 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Fleetwood Town wins1Rochdale wins- L Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale 1-2
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Fleetwood Town's side.