Northampton
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.57
Rochdale
14%
Fair odds 6.98
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Northampton | Draw | Rochdale | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Elo model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Northampton
Northampton are rated 60 points above Rochdale (1207 to 1147), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Northampton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Northampton's chance of winning and takes the same from Rochdale's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Northampton
Expected goals 2.0 to 0.8. Northampton score 0.7 a match against an average side (11th in League Two); Rochdale concede 2.8 (24th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Favours Northampton
Northampton LDWLW, gained 5 rating points; Rochdale LLDLD, lost 32 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Northampton won 1, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NorthamptonRochdaleNorthampton
0/10 over 2.5
8 scored
8 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Rochdale
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
20 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 0-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Northampton | Draw | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 43%2.33 | 4%23.42 | 1%97.09 |
| Level | 19%5.28 | 13%7.51 | 6%15.92 |
| Rochdale | 2%42.74 | 4%28.41 | 7%13.48 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Northampton wins2Rochdale wins- D Rochdale vs Northampton 1-1
- W Northampton vs Rochdale 3-0
- L Rochdale vs Northampton 1-0
- L Northampton vs Rochdale 1-3
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Northampton's side.