Clermont
36%
Fair odds 2.77Bookmakers 31%
Rodez
Model pick
37%
Fair odds 2.71Bookmakers 42%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Clermont | Draw | Rodez | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Best price on offer | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Rodez
Rodez are rated 64 points above Clermont (1374 to 1310), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Clermont
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Clermont's chance of winning and takes the same from Rodez's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.4. Clermont score 0.8 a match against an average side (18th in Ligue 2); Rodez concede 1.7 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Clermont DLDLD, lost 12 rating points; Rodez WWLLL, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Rodez
Bookmakers rate Rodez higher than the model does: Clermont 31% against the model's 36%, Rodez 42% against 37%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Clermont won 1, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ClermontRodezClermont
3/10 over 2.5
10 scored
15 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/28
09/04
09/11
09/18
10/10
10/16
10/23
10/30
Rodez
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
21 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/28
09/05
09/11
09/18
10/10
10/19
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 52%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Clermont | Draw | Rodez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clermont | 22%4.56 | 6%18.05 | 2%40.00 |
| Level | 13%7.79 | 16%6.35 | 14%6.94 |
| Rodez | 2%52.63 | 5%21.55 | 21%4.88 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Clermont wins1Rodez wins- L Clermont vs Rodez 1-2
- W Rodez vs Clermont 0-1
- D Rodez vs Clermont 1-1
- D Clermont vs Rodez 1-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Clermont's side.