Guingamp
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.01
Rodez
26%
Fair odds 3.86
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Guingamp | Draw | Rodez | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Rodez
Rodez are rated 26 points above Guingamp (1374 to 1348), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Guingamp
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Guingamp's chance of winning and takes the same from Rodez's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Guingamp
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.2. Guingamp score 1.0 a match against an average side (5th in Ligue 2); Rodez concede 1.7 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Guingamp
Guingamp WWLLL, barely moved; Rodez WWLLL, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Guingamp
Guingamp won 4, drew 5 and lost 1 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GuingampRodezGuingamp
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
13 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/16
10/23
10/31
Rodez
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
21 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/28
09/05
09/11
09/18
10/10
10/19
10/24
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Guingamp | Draw | Rodez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guingamp | 30%3.35 | 5%20.66 | 2%55.25 |
| Level | 17%5.82 | 14%7.34 | 10%10.14 |
| Rodez | 3%32.36 | 5%19.88 | 15%6.81 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Guingamp wins1Rodez wins- D Guingamp vs Rodez 0-0
- L Rodez vs Guingamp 2-1
- W Guingamp vs Rodez 3-0
- W Rodez vs Guingamp 1-2
- D Guingamp vs Rodez 3-3
- D Rodez vs Guingamp 0-0
- W Rodez vs Guingamp 0-1
- D Guingamp vs Rodez 0-0
- D Rodez vs Guingamp 1-1
- W Guingamp vs Rodez 2-1
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Guingamp's side.