Paris SG
Model pick
77%
Fair odds 1.30Bookmakers 69%
Roma
10%
Fair odds 10.11Bookmakers 14%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Paris SG | Draw | Roma | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 77% | 13% | 10% |
| Elo model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| Best price on offer | 1.42 | 5.91 | 7.81 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Paris SG
Paris SG are rated 107 points above Roma (1760 to 1653), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Paris SG
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Paris SG's chance of winning and takes the same from Roma's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Paris SG
Expected goals 3.2 to 1.1. Paris SG score 2.9 a match against an average side (1st in Ligue 1); Roma concede 1.0 (4th best defence in Serie A).
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Last 5 matches Favours Paris SG
Paris SG WWWWW, gained 37 rating points; Roma LWWDW, gained 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
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Bookmakers' view Favours Roma
Bookmakers rate Roma higher than the model does: Paris SG 69% against the model's 77%, Roma 14% against 10%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Paris SGRomaParis SG
8/10 over 2.5
36 scored
9 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/26
10/30
11/03
Roma
7/10 over 2.5
27 scored
16 conceded
09/14
09/19
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 72%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-1
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 2-0
- 4-1
- 4-0
- 1-1
- 3-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Paris SG | Draw | Roma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris SG | 36%2.75 | 2%63.69 | 0%— |
| Level | 30%3.33 | 6%16.61 | 3%35.09 |
| Roma | 11%9.24 | 5%19.19 | 7%14.73 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.