Parma
21%
Fair odds 4.76
Roma
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.83
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Parma | Draw | Roma | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 21% | 24% | 55% |
| Elo model | 18% | 26% | 56% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Roma
Roma are rated 203 points above Parma (1653 to 1450), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Parma
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Parma's chance of winning and takes the same from Roma's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Roma
Expected goals 1.0 to 1.8. Parma score 1.0 a match against an average side (20th in Serie A); Roma concede 1.0 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Parma WDLLL, barely moved; Roma LWWDW, gained 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Roma
Parma won 0, drew 0 and lost 4 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ParmaRomaParma
6/10 over 2.5
8 scored
15 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/06
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/19
10/24
10/28
11/02
Roma
7/10 over 2.5
27 scored
16 conceded
09/14
09/19
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 0 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Parma | Draw | Roma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 12%8.58 | 5%21.14 | 3%32.26 |
| Level | 8%11.81 | 14%7.05 | 19%5.14 |
| Roma | 1%74.07 | 4%22.83 | 33%3.06 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Parma wins4Roma wins- L Parma vs Roma 2-3
- L Roma vs Parma 2-1
- L Parma vs Roma 0-1
- L Roma vs Parma 5-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Parma's side.