Aalesund
12%
Fair odds 8.48
Rosenborg
Model pick
73%
Fair odds 1.38
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Aalesund | Draw | Rosenborg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 12% | 16% | 73% |
| Elo model | 19% | 26% | 56% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Rosenborg
Rosenborg are rated 200 points above Aalesund (1462 to 1262), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Aalesund
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Aalesund's chance of winning and takes the same from Rosenborg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Rosenborg
Expected goals 1.1 to 2.8. Aalesund score 0.9 a match against an average side (8th in Eliteserien); Rosenborg concede 1.2 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Rosenborg
Aalesund LLWLW, gained 10 rating points; Rosenborg WWWDW, gained 44 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Aalesund won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AalesundRosenborgAalesund
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
22 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/04
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/31
Rosenborg
8/10 over 2.5
28 scored
10 conceded
08/09
08/14
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-2
- 1-3
- 0-2
- 0-3
- 1-1
- 1-4
- 0-1
- 0-4
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Aalesund | Draw | Rosenborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aalesund | 10%9.62 | 9%11.66 | 17%6.05 |
| Level | 2%64.94 | 6%17.15 | 32%3.15 |
| Rosenborg | 0%— | 1%— | 25%4.07 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Aalesund wins2Rosenborg wins- W Rosenborg vs Aalesund 2-3
- L Rosenborg vs Aalesund 4-0
- W Aalesund vs Rosenborg 1-0
- L Rosenborg vs Aalesund 2-1
- D Aalesund vs Rosenborg 0-0
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Aalesund's side.