Grimsby
Model pick
60%
Fair odds 1.67
Rotherham
18%
Fair odds 5.66
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Grimsby | Draw | Rotherham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 21% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Grimsby
Grimsby are rated 46 points above Rotherham (1254 to 1208), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Grimsby
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Grimsby's chance of winning and takes the same from Rotherham's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Grimsby
Expected goals 2.0 to 1.0. Grimsby score 0.8 a match against an average side (1st in League Two); Rotherham concede 2.3 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Grimsby
Grimsby WWDLL, gained 6 rating points; Rotherham LDDLL, lost 43 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
GrimsbyRotherhamGrimsby
6/10 over 2.5
19 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Rotherham
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
19 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Grimsby | Draw | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby | 32%3.17 | 3%36.23 | 1%— |
| Level | 24%4.23 | 13%7.93 | 5%18.25 |
| Rotherham | 5%19.19 | 6%16.13 | 12%8.36 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.