Eldense
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.65
Sabadell
35%
Fair odds 2.87
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Eldense | Draw | Sabadell | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 28% | 35% |
| Elo model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sabadell
Sabadell are rated 54 points above Eldense (1363 to 1309), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Eldense
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Eldense's chance of winning and takes the same from Sabadell's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.3. Eldense score 0.9 a match against an average side (17th in La Liga 2); Sabadell concede 1.4 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Eldense
Eldense LLWWW, gained 10 rating points; Sabadell LDLWD, lost 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
EldenseSabadellEldense
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
12 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/19
09/27
10/02
10/10
10/18
10/25
11/01
Sabadell
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/04
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Eldense | Draw | Sabadell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eldense | 23%4.43 | 5%19.23 | 2%47.85 |
| Level | 14%7.34 | 16%6.11 | 13%7.56 |
| Sabadell | 2%49.75 | 5%20.49 | 20%4.99 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.