Accrington
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.58
Salford
34%
Fair odds 2.97
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Accrington | Draw | Salford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Elo model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Salford
Salford are rated 100 points above Accrington (1296 to 1196), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Accrington
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Accrington's chance of winning and takes the same from Salford's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Accrington score 0.7 a match against an average side (5th in League Two); Salford concede 1.8 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Accrington DWDWD, gained 37 rating points; Salford WWWWW, gained 38 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Accrington
Accrington won 4, drew 0 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AccringtonSalfordAccrington
4/10 over 2.5
17 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Salford
6/10 over 2.5
22 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/26
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Accrington | Draw | Salford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington | 23%4.30 | 5%19.16 | 2%48.31 |
| Level | 14%7.11 | 16%6.11 | 13%7.66 |
| Salford | 2%48.54 | 5%20.70 | 19%5.24 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Accrington wins2Salford wins- W Accrington vs Salford 1-0
- L Salford vs Accrington 2-1
- W Salford vs Accrington 1-2
- L Accrington vs Salford 0-2
- W Accrington vs Salford 3-0
- W Salford vs Accrington 1-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Accrington's side.