Austria Vienna
14%
Fair odds 6.91
Salzburg
Model pick
66%
Fair odds 1.51
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Austria Vienna | Draw | Salzburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 14% | 19% | 66% |
| Elo model | 25% | 27% | 47% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Salzburg
Salzburg are rated 143 points above Austria Vienna (1460 to 1317), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Austria Vienna
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Austria Vienna's chance of winning and takes the same from Salzburg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Salzburg
Expected goals 1.0 to 2.3. Austria Vienna score 0.7 a match against an average side (9th in Austrian Bundesliga); Salzburg concede 1.4 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Salzburg
Austria Vienna LLLLD, lost 32 rating points; Salzburg LWWDW, gained 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Salzburg
Austria Vienna won 1, drew 3 and lost 15 of the last 19 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Austria ViennaSalzburgAustria Vienna
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
19 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/02
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/23
11/01
Salzburg
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
11 conceded
09/11
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-3
- 1-3
- 2-2
- 0-4
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Austria Vienna | Draw | Salzburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Vienna | 13%7.62 | 10%10.37 | 13%7.84 |
| Level | 2%62.50 | 8%12.24 | 29%3.41 |
| Salzburg | 0%— | 1%— | 25%4.07 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Austria Vienna wins15Salzburg wins- L Salzburg vs Austria Vienna 4-1
- L Salzburg vs Austria Vienna 3-1
- L Austria Vienna vs Salzburg 1-3
- W Salzburg vs Austria Vienna 0-2
- L Austria Vienna vs Salzburg 0-3
- L Salzburg vs Austria Vienna 2-0
- L Austria Vienna vs Salzburg 1-3
- L Austria Vienna vs Salzburg 0-1
- L Salzburg vs Austria Vienna 2-0
- D Austria Vienna vs Salzburg 0-0
19 meetings in the data. Results shown from Austria Vienna's side.