Sturm Graz
35%
Fair odds 2.90Bookmakers 32%
Salzburg
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.54Bookmakers 44%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sturm Graz | Draw | Salzburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Best price on offer | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.12 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Salzburg
Salzburg are rated 29 points above Sturm Graz (1460 to 1431), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sturm Graz
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sturm Graz's chance of winning and takes the same from Salzburg's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.5. Sturm Graz score 1.0 a match against an average side (4th in Austrian Bundesliga); Salzburg concede 1.4 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Salzburg
Sturm Graz LDDWW, barely moved; Salzburg LWWDW, gained 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Salzburg
Bookmakers rate Salzburg higher than the model does: Sturm Graz 32% against the model's 35%, Salzburg 44% against 39%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Salzburg
Sturm Graz won 6, drew 7 and lost 8 of the last 21 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Sturm GrazSalzburgSturm Graz
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
09/13
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Salzburg
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
11 conceded
09/11
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sturm Graz | Draw | Salzburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 25%4.04 | 7%14.01 | 4%27.40 |
| Level | 9%10.95 | 14%6.93 | 16%6.43 |
| Salzburg | 1%87.72 | 4%28.33 | 21%4.83 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Sturm Graz wins8Salzburg wins- L Salzburg vs Sturm Graz 3-0
- D Salzburg vs Sturm Graz 1-1
- D Sturm Graz vs Salzburg 1-1
- D Sturm Graz vs Salzburg 1-1
- W Salzburg vs Sturm Graz 0-2
- W Sturm Graz vs Salzburg 4-2
- W Salzburg vs Sturm Graz 1-2
- L Salzburg vs Sturm Graz 3-1
- W Sturm Graz vs Salzburg 5-0
- D Salzburg vs Sturm Graz 2-2
21 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sturm Graz's side.