Carrarese
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.31Bookmakers 38%
Sampdoria
29%
Fair odds 3.48Bookmakers 33%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Carrarese | Draw | Sampdoria | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Elo model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Best price on offer | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Carrarese
Carrarese are rated 19 points above Sampdoria (1322 to 1303), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Carrarese
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Carrarese's chance of winning and takes the same from Sampdoria's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Carrarese
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Carrarese score 0.9 a match against an average side (15th in Serie B); Sampdoria concede 1.6 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Carrarese
Carrarese LWLWW, gained 15 rating points; Sampdoria WLDLL, lost 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Sampdoria
Bookmakers rate Sampdoria higher than the model does: Carrarese 38% against the model's 43%, Sampdoria 33% against 29%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Carrarese won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CarrareseSampdoriaCarrarese
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
13 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Sampdoria
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
18 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/07
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/18
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 49%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Carrarese | Draw | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese | 24%4.08 | 4%22.73 | 1%71.43 |
| Level | 17%5.92 | 17%5.80 | 11%9.19 |
| Sampdoria | 2%40.00 | 5%18.98 | 17%5.90 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Carrarese wins1Sampdoria wins- W Carrarese vs Sampdoria 2-0
- L Sampdoria vs Carrarese 3-2
- W Carrarese vs Sampdoria 1-0
- D Sampdoria vs Carrarese 1-1
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Carrarese's side.