Padova
36%
Fair odds 2.79
Sampdoria
Model pick
36%
Fair odds 2.77
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Padova | Draw | Sampdoria | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Padova
Padova are rated 30 points above Sampdoria (1333 to 1303), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Padova
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Padova's chance of winning and takes the same from Sampdoria's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.3. Padova score 0.8 a match against an average side (21st in Serie B); Sampdoria concede 1.6 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Padova DWWLL, barely moved; Sampdoria WLDLL, lost 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
PadovaSampdoriaPadova
3/10 over 2.5
10 scored
11 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/31
Sampdoria
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
18 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/07
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/18
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Padova | Draw | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padova | 21%4.69 | 5%19.57 | 2%49.50 |
| Level | 13%7.56 | 17%5.89 | 14%7.34 |
| Sampdoria | 2%53.19 | 5%20.53 | 21%4.77 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Padova wins1Sampdoria wins- L Sampdoria vs Padova 1-0
- D Padova vs Sampdoria 1-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Padova's side.