Galatasaray
Model pick
80%
Fair odds 1.25
Samsunspor
7%
Fair odds 13.64
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Galatasaray | Draw | Samsunspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| Elo model | 73% | 19% | 7% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Galatasaray
Galatasaray are rated 209 points above Samsunspor (1667 to 1457), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Galatasaray
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Galatasaray's chance of winning and takes the same from Samsunspor's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Galatasaray
Expected goals 3.0 to 0.8. Galatasaray score 1.9 a match against an average side (1st in Süper Lig); Samsunspor concede 1.6 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Galatasaray
Galatasaray WWWWW, gained 38 rating points; Samsunspor LLLLL, lost 44 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Galatasaray
Galatasaray won 5, drew 0 and lost 1 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
GalatasaraySamsunsporGalatasaray
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
15 conceded
09/09
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/26
10/30
11/03
Samsunspor
6/10 over 2.5
10 scored
26 conceded
08/17
08/22
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/24
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 1-0
- 4-1
- 1-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Galatasaray | Draw | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 52%1.94 | 2%43.48 | 1%— |
| Level | 24%4.21 | 7%14.64 | 3%35.34 |
| Samsunspor | 5%20.83 | 3%31.25 | 4%23.98 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Galatasaray wins1Samsunspor wins- L Samsunspor vs Galatasaray 4-1
- W Galatasaray vs Samsunspor 3-2
- W Samsunspor vs Galatasaray 0-2
- W Galatasaray vs Samsunspor 3-2
- W Samsunspor vs Galatasaray 0-2
- W Galatasaray vs Samsunspor 4-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Galatasaray's side.