Minnesota United
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.94Bookmakers 54%
San Jose Earthquakes
26%
Fair odds 3.80Bookmakers 24%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Minnesota United | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 22% | 26% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Best price on offer | 1.73 | 4.33 | 4.20 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Minnesota United
Minnesota United are rated 12 points above San Jose Earthquakes (1357 to 1346), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Minnesota United
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Minnesota United's chance of winning and takes the same from San Jose Earthquakes's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Minnesota United
Expected goals 2.1 to 1.4. Minnesota United score 1.0 a match against an average side (11th in MLS); San Jose Earthquakes concede 2.1 (18th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Minnesota United
Minnesota United WWDWD, gained 32 rating points; San Jose Earthquakes WDLDD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Minnesota United
Bookmakers rate Minnesota United higher than the model does: Minnesota United 54% against the model's 51%, San Jose Earthquakes 24% against 26%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Minnesota United
Minnesota United won 6, drew 4 and lost 1 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Minnesota UnitedSan Jose EarthquakesMinnesota United
9/10 over 2.5
19 scored
20 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/17
10/25
10/29
11/02
San Jose Earthquakes
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 3-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Minnesota United | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United | 29%3.44 | 4%22.42 | 2%50.76 |
| Level | 18%5.44 | 11%8.80 | 9%10.66 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 4%22.57 | 6%17.99 | 15%6.51 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Minnesota United wins1San Jose Earthquakes wins- W San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United 1-5
- W Minnesota United vs San Jose Earthquakes 4-1
- W San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United 0-1
- W San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United 1-2
- W Minnesota United vs San Jose Earthquakes 2-0
- D Minnesota United vs San Jose Earthquakes 1-1
- D San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United 1-1
- L San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United 2-0
- W Minnesota United vs San Jose Earthquakes 1-0
- D San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United 1-1
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Minnesota United's side.