Kristiansund
30%
Fair odds 3.31
Sandefjord
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.26
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kristiansund | Draw | Sandefjord | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sandefjord
Sandefjord are rated 64 points above Kristiansund (1351 to 1287), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kristiansund
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Kristiansund's chance of winning and takes the same from Sandefjord's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sandefjord
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.6. Kristiansund score 0.8 a match against an average side (16th in Eliteserien); Sandefjord concede 1.7 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Kristiansund WDLLL, lost 13 rating points; Sandefjord WLLDW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Sandefjord
Kristiansund won 3, drew 1 and lost 5 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
KristiansundSandefjordKristiansund
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
26 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
11/01
Sandefjord
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
13 conceded
08/07
08/16
08/30
09/04
09/14
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kristiansund | Draw | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kristiansund | 23%4.40 | 8%12.53 | 5%20.66 |
| Level | 7%13.97 | 14%7.26 | 18%5.50 |
| Sandefjord | 1%— | 3%34.97 | 22%4.60 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Kristiansund wins5Sandefjord wins- L Sandefjord vs Kristiansund 2-0
- D Kristiansund vs Sandefjord 2-2
- L Sandefjord vs Kristiansund 6-0
- W Kristiansund vs Sandefjord 2-1
- L Sandefjord vs Kristiansund 1-0
- W Kristiansund vs Sandefjord 3-1
- L Sandefjord vs Kristiansund 2-0
- L Sandefjord vs Kristiansund 3-2
- W Kristiansund vs Sandefjord 2-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kristiansund's side.