FC Tokyo
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.11
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
26%
Fair odds 3.81
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| FC Tokyo | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 26% | 26% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are rated 33 points above FC Tokyo (1470 to 1437), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours FC Tokyo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to FC Tokyo's chance of winning and takes the same from Sanfrecce Hiroshima's.
-
Attack against defence Favours FC Tokyo
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. FC Tokyo score 1.3 a match against an average side (1st in J1 League); Sanfrecce Hiroshima concede 1.2 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo WWDWW, gained 47 rating points; Sanfrecce Hiroshima WWLWW, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
FC Tokyo won 4, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
FC TokyoSanfrecce HiroshimaFC Tokyo
5/10 over 2.5
26 scored
1 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/31
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
7/10 over 2.5
24 scored
8 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | FC Tokyo | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 30%3.32 | 4%23.36 | 1%90.09 |
| Level | 15%6.58 | 16%6.35 | 8%12.22 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2%40.16 | 5%18.35 | 17%5.74 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4FC Tokyo wins3Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins- D Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs FC Tokyo 0-0
- L FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-3
- L Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs FC Tokyo 3-2
- D FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1
- L FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2
- W Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs FC Tokyo 1-2
- W Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs FC Tokyo 1-2
- W FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1
- W Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs FC Tokyo 1-2
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from FC Tokyo's side.