Machida
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.41Bookmakers 33%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
31%
Fair odds 3.25Bookmakers 40%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Machida: 42% here, 33% with bookmakers; Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 31% here, 40% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Machida | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 33% | 28% | 40% |
| Best price on offer | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.44 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are rated 17 points above Machida (1470 to 1453), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Machida
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Machida's chance of winning and takes the same from Sanfrecce Hiroshima's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Machida
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.2. Machida score 1.2 a match against an average side (4th in J1 League); Sanfrecce Hiroshima concede 1.2 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Machida DDWWW, gained 25 rating points; Sanfrecce Hiroshima WWLWW, gained 11 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Bookmakers rate Sanfrecce Hiroshima higher than the model does: Machida 33% against the model's 42%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 40% against 31%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Machida won 0, drew 0 and lost 4 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MachidaSanfrecce HiroshimaMachida
5/10 over 2.5
18 scored
8 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/21
10/24
11/01
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
7/10 over 2.5
24 scored
8 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Machida | Draw | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Machida | 29%3.50 | 5%18.76 | 2%61.73 |
| Level | 12%8.38 | 17%5.97 | 10%9.59 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2%63.69 | 5%21.98 | 19%5.20 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Machida wins4Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins- L Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida 2-1
- L Machida vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2
- L Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida 2-0
- L Machida vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Machida's side.