Atlante
35%
Fair odds 2.86Bookmakers 43%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Atlante | Draw | Santos Laguna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 26% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Best price on offer | 2.20 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Neutral
Atlante and Santos Laguna are rated almost level (1327 and 1322).
-
Home advantage Favours Atlante
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Atlante's chance of winning and takes the same from Santos Laguna's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.5. Atlante score 0.8 a match against an average side (13th in Liga MX); Santos Laguna concede 1.8 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Santos Laguna
Atlante LLWLL, lost 21 rating points; Santos Laguna WLWWW, gained 39 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Atlante
Bookmakers rate Atlante higher than the model does: Atlante 43% against the model's 35%, Santos Laguna 32% against 39%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AtlanteSantos LagunaAtlante
4/10 over 2.5
11 scored
17 conceded
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/24
11/01
08/30
09/07
09/14
09/21
09/27
10/12
10/18
10/22
10/26
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Atlante | Draw | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlante | 25%4.03 | 7%14.14 | 4%27.32 |
| Level | 9%10.57 | 14%7.03 | 15%6.48 |
| Santos Laguna | 1%81.30 | 4%27.62 | 21%4.88 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.