Botafogo RJ
36%
Fair odds 2.81
Sao Paulo
Model pick
36%
Fair odds 2.77
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Botafogo RJ | Draw | Sao Paulo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Botafogo RJ and Sao Paulo are rated almost level (1368 and 1359).
-
Home advantage Favours Botafogo RJ
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Botafogo RJ's chance of winning and takes the same from Sao Paulo's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.3. Botafogo RJ score 0.7 a match against an average side (17th in Brasileirão); Sao Paulo concede 1.6 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Sao Paulo
Botafogo RJ LLWDL, lost 29 rating points; Sao Paulo LDWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Botafogo RJ
Botafogo RJ won 4, drew 4 and lost 1 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Botafogo RJSao PauloBotafogo RJ
5/10 over 2.5
8 scored
16 conceded
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/16
09/19
10/08
10/12
10/17
10/24
10/29
Sao Paulo
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
12 conceded
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/03
10/08
10/11
10/18
10/24
10/29
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Botafogo RJ | Draw | Sao Paulo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo RJ | 27%3.77 | 7%15.24 | 2%41.67 |
| Level | 9%11.51 | 17%5.83 | 13%7.53 |
| Sao Paulo | 1%— | 4%28.57 | 21%4.77 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Botafogo RJ wins1Sao Paulo wins- D Sao Paulo vs Botafogo RJ 1-1
- L Sao Paulo vs Botafogo RJ 1-0
- D Botafogo RJ vs Sao Paulo 2-2
- W Botafogo RJ vs Sao Paulo 2-1
- D Sao Paulo vs Botafogo RJ 2-2
- D Sao Paulo vs Botafogo RJ 0-0
- W Botafogo RJ vs Sao Paulo 2-1
- W Sao Paulo vs Botafogo RJ 0-1
- W Botafogo RJ vs Sao Paulo 1-0
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Botafogo RJ's side.