Tigre
Model pick
45%
Fair odds 2.22Bookmakers 48%
Sarmiento Junin
25%
Fair odds 3.93Bookmakers 23%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Tigre | Draw | Sarmiento Junin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 45% | 29% | 25% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 48% | 29% | 23% |
| Best price on offer | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.33 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Tigre
Tigre are rated 26 points above Sarmiento Junin (1352 to 1326), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Tigre
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Tigre's chance of winning and takes the same from Sarmiento Junin's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Tigre
Expected goals 1.3 to 0.9. Tigre score 0.7 a match against an average side (22nd in Liga Profesional); Sarmiento Junin concede 1.7 (24th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Tigre WLDLL, lost 6 rating points; Sarmiento Junin LLDDW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Tigre
Bookmakers rate Tigre higher than the model does: Tigre 48% against the model's 45%, Sarmiento Junin 23% against 25%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Tigre won 1, drew 3 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
TigreSarmiento JuninTigre
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
14 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/13
09/21
10/04
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/30
Sarmiento Junin
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
15 conceded
08/23
08/28
09/04
09/13
09/19
10/09
10/14
10/19
10/23
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Tigre | Draw | Sarmiento Junin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigre | 31%3.18 | 4%28.09 | 1%— |
| Level | 13%7.86 | 20%5.01 | 6%15.55 |
| Sarmiento Junin | 1%67.11 | 5%20.04 | 19%5.30 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Tigre wins2Sarmiento Junin wins- L Sarmiento Junin vs Tigre 1-0
- D Sarmiento Junin vs Tigre 0-0
- D Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin 0-0
- L Sarmiento Junin vs Tigre 2-0
- W Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin 1-0
- D Sarmiento Junin vs Tigre 2-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Tigre's side.