HamKam
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.42Bookmakers 31%
Sarpsborg 08
34%
Fair odds 2.91Bookmakers 44%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. HamKam: 41% here, 31% with bookmakers; Sarpsborg 08: 34% here, 44% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| HamKam | Draw | Sarpsborg 08 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 41% | 24% | 34% |
| Elo model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 31% | 25% | 44% |
| Best price on offer | 3.00 | 3.80 | 2.20 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sarpsborg 08
Sarpsborg 08 are rated 25 points above HamKam (1338 to 1313), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours HamKam
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to HamKam's chance of winning and takes the same from Sarpsborg 08's.
-
Attack against defence Favours HamKam
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.5. HamKam score 0.8 a match against an average side (12th in Eliteserien); Sarpsborg 08 concede 2.1 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours HamKam
HamKam DLLWL, barely moved; Sarpsborg 08 LWLWL, lost 32 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Sarpsborg 08
Bookmakers rate Sarpsborg 08 higher than the model does: HamKam 31% against the model's 41%, Sarpsborg 08 44% against 34%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Sarpsborg 08
HamKam won 3, drew 1 and lost 5 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HamKamSarpsborg 08HamKam
8/10 over 2.5
12 scored
27 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/01
Sarpsborg 08
8/10 over 2.5
14 scored
20 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/30
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | HamKam | Draw | Sarpsborg 08 |
|---|---|---|---|
| HamKam | 26%3.80 | 6%16.53 | 3%31.95 |
| Level | 13%7.67 | 13%7.77 | 13%7.56 |
| Sarpsborg 08 | 2%42.74 | 5%22.12 | 18%5.41 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3HamKam wins5Sarpsborg 08 wins- L Sarpsborg 08 vs HamKam 1-0
- L HamKam vs Sarpsborg 08 1-3
- L Sarpsborg 08 vs HamKam 4-0
- L HamKam vs Sarpsborg 08 0-2
- W Sarpsborg 08 vs HamKam 1-7
- D HamKam vs Sarpsborg 08 1-1
- W Sarpsborg 08 vs HamKam 2-3
- L Sarpsborg 08 vs HamKam 2-1
- W HamKam vs Sarpsborg 08 3-2
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from HamKam's side.