Roma
Model pick
77%
Fair odds 1.30Bookmakers 73%
Sassuolo
9%
Fair odds 11.17Bookmakers 11%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Roma | Draw | Sassuolo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Elo model | 72% | 20% | 8% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| Best price on offer | 1.32 | 6.25 | 11.00 |
Team news
- Mile Svilar Out
- Paulo Dybala Out
- Manu Koné Out
- Lorenzo Pellegrini Out
- Devyne Rensch Out
- Pierluigi Gollini Doubtful
Gasperini has said little publicly; Ghilardi and Molina are expected to start, and Cristante and Wesley are available after recent issues.
- Domenico Berardi Doubtful
- Fedde Leysen Out
- Daniel Boloca Out
- Ismaël Koné Out
- Cristian Volpato Out
Kristian Thorstvedt returns from suspension and is expected to start; Aquilani has said he is still looking for his most reliable central defensive pairing.
Allowing for this news: Roma 74%, draw 15%, Sassuolo 10% (xG 2.72 – 0.95). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: romaforever.it, romatoday.it, diretta.it, ansa.it
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Roma
Roma are rated 201 points above Sassuolo (1653 to 1452), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Roma
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Roma's chance of winning and takes the same from Sassuolo's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Roma
Expected goals 2.9 to 0.9. Roma score 1.8 a match against an average side (3rd in Serie A); Sassuolo concede 1.6 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Roma
Roma LWWDW, gained 9 rating points; Sassuolo LLLLD, lost 40 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Sassuolo
Bookmakers rate Sassuolo higher than the model does: Roma 73% against the model's 77%, Sassuolo 11% against 9%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Roma
Roma won 5, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
RomaSassuoloRoma
7/10 over 2.5
27 scored
16 conceded
09/14
09/19
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
11/03
Sassuolo
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
26 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/06
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/16
10/24
10/27
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 69%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 1-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Roma | Draw | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | 49%2.05 | 3%37.88 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.26 | 8%13.25 | 3%28.90 |
| Sassuolo | 5%20.66 | 4%28.33 | 5%19.76 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Roma wins1Sassuolo wins- W Roma vs Sassuolo 2-0
- W Sassuolo vs Roma 0-1
- W Roma vs Sassuolo 1-0
- W Sassuolo vs Roma 1-2
- L Roma vs Sassuolo 3-4
- D Sassuolo vs Roma 1-1
- D Sassuolo vs Roma 2-2
- W Roma vs Sassuolo 2-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Roma's side.